White Papers
11 Argentina's Economic Comeback and Bottlenecks in the Mineral Industry
The Conversion Speed of Geological Assets and the Structural Time Lag In the macro trajectory of Argentina's economic comeback, minerals are emerging as a core structure that secures long-term competitiveness. Lithium and copper go beyond simple traded commodities. They are strategic industrial assets that organically mediate foreign-exchange liquidity, inflows of real capital, reintegration into global supply chains, and... May 17, 2026 | 11P 10 The Repricing of Security Guarantees
Defense Cost-Sharing, Alliance Cost Transfer, and US Strategic Redeployment Recent U.S. pressure regarding defense cost-sharing functions as a cost reallocation structure. This mechanism transfers a portion of previous security guarantees to allies and reallocates the resulting strategic capacity to regions where U.S. influence is relatively weak. May 4, 2026 | 7P 09 The Cost of Maintaining the Gap
US Sanctions, China, and the Economics of Technological Lead U.S. sanctions against China raise the cost of China's technological ascent. Restrictions on semiconductor equipment, advanced AI chips, design software, cloud access, investment, and supply-chain reconfiguration slow China's access to frontier technologies. April 29, 2026 | 7P 08 Europe's Energy Substitution Trap
From Russian Pipelines to LNG Exposure Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian energy, replacing a substantial portion of the physical supply through Norwegian gas, U.S. LNG, North African and Middle Eastern sources, storage management, demand adjustments, and renewable energy expansion. Russian oil, gas, and coal have been pushed out of the EU energy import structure. April 24, 2026 | 6P 07 US-Iran Negotiation Dynamics
A Structural Diagnosis of Dual-Track Coercive Bargaining The present U.S.-Iran negotiation phase is not a transition toward stable peace, but a dual-track coercive bargaining structure in which pressure and negotiation proceed in parallel. Market pricing, Iranian signaling, American coercive posture, and the continued maintenance of the Islamabad channel all point to the same conclusion: the possibility of... April 20, 2026 | 4P 06 The Kurdish Dilemma in the Middle East
Why a Structurally Similar Position to the Gulf Still Leaves the Kurds Bearing Additional Costs The Kurdish question remains a persistent Middle Eastern strategic dilemma. Given their demographic weight and geographic position, it is difficult to treat the issue as peripheral. Yet without a single state framework, it is often fragmented in international discourse. April 18, 2026 | 7P 05 The Limits of US-Israel Alignment After the Ceasefire
The Lebanon Front and Strategic Cost Asymmetry From Israel's perspective, the current Lebanon front extends beyond a simple campaign to eliminate Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah is the formal target of engagement, the actual pattern of strikes is unfolding in a direction that disrupts Lebanon's spatial order as a whole and erodes its internal cohesion. April 10, 2026 | 5P 04 Structural Vulnerability of the Three South Caucasus States
After the End of the Russia-Ukraine War The end of the Russia-Ukraine war can serve as the trigger that exposes the structural vulnerability embedded in the war-driven inflow economies of the three South Caucasus states. Their wartime expansion was not generated by endogenous growth. April 5, 2026 | 6P 03 Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and the Iran War
The Structural Interlock of the Russia-Ukraine Negotiation Track From mid-February 2026 onward, the Russia-Ukraine war ceased to function merely as an extended war of attrition and entered a compressed negotiation phase. The February 18 Geneva meeting and the scheduled early-March trilateral follow-up in Abu Dhabi established a concrete bargaining timetable, converting the diplomatic track from exploratory contact... March 29, 2026 | 5P 02 Architecture of the US-Iran Conflict
Part 2 The current conflict is better understood not as a campaign designed to extract immediate strategic gains from striking Iran, but as one intended to establish negotiating dominance through a swift and decisive victory, thereby securing longer-term advantages. March 25, 2026 | 6P