Regional Briefs
Transatlantic
13 Review of the US-Iran War
The essence of this U.S.-Iran conflict converges on the neutralization of the U.S. administration's short-term war-termination design. The United States sought to force Iranian concessions and secure negotiating leadership in the short term by mobilizing overwhelming initial military superiority and high-intensity pressure. June 15, 2026 12 Key Characteristics and Strategic Implications of USTR Section 301 Measures
The U.S. Trade Representative's (USTR) Section 301 action under the Trade Act is distinguished from conventional approaches to addressing forced labor, as it deems a trading partner's institutional deficiencies and lack of enforcement regarding forced labor import bans an unfair trade practice, and imposes additional tariffs based on this determination. June 7, 2026 11 Trump's Differentiated Security Policy Toward Germany and Poland.
Relations between the United States and Germany are being manifested through political friction between top leaders and the accompanying punitive measures. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly criticized the U.S. Trump administration's lack of strategy regarding the situation of the war in Iran. May 23, 2026 10 Views on the US Pressure against Iran Regarding Enriched Uranium
Even if the U.S. raises the level of pressure on the direct control of enriched uranium, if Iran's alternative processing method presents a sufficiently rational and reliable path from a neutral perspective, from the perspective of the justification for additional U.S. military pressure, it may not have much persuasiveness, but in terms of political... May 22, 2026 09 AI's Hidden Labor Shock Behind Stable Employment Data
Following recent advances in AI, workforce reductions, hiring deferrals, and organizational restructuring have been announced in succession, primarily across Big Tech and the IT sector. However, macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. nonfarm payroll employment data, do not yet reflect this shock as a visible employment crisis. May 12, 2026 08 An Interpretation of Trump's May 10 Rejection of Iran's Reply
On May 10 (local time), Trump stated that Iran's reply was entirely unacceptable. Based on what is currently known, the two proposals appear to share a similar endpoint. Ending the war, normalizing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions and blockade measures, and addressing remaining issues, including the nuclear issue, through a... May 11, 2026 07 The EU's Expanding High-Risk Supplier Framework
The European Union is pushing to reduce its supply-chain dependence on China. The European Union is expanding the "high-risk supplier" security framework, first applied to telecommunications infrastructure, into power grids, energy-sector ICT systems, critical infrastructure, and connected vehicles. May 8, 2026 06 Trump's Tone Shift and the Emergence of Conditional Agreement Language
On May 6 (local time), Trump posted on Truth Social, "Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption." While his past rhetoric heavily focused on the language of prohibition and denial, such as "cannot," "never," and "no enrichment," this latest remark appears to move toward an implementation-focused... May 7, 2026 05 Romania and the Political Cost of the Eastern Flank
Romania's pro-EU minority government collapsed following a parliamentary vote of no confidence. This event exposes a structural gap between Romania's strategic value on the EU and NATO eastern flank and the domestic political stability required to support it. May 5, 2026 04 Mercosur as the EU's Buffer Strategy Under US Tariff Pressure
The geoeconomic core of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement lies in the 'Risk Hedging' of core EU industrial goods exposed to U.S. tariff barriers. Mercosur's market fundamentals cannot immediately replace the scale and profitability of the U.S. market, but a meaningful auxiliary buffer mechanism operates in core sectors where U.S. tariff pressure and... May 2, 2026