Regional Briefs
Eurasian · Global South
05 The Kurdish Dilemma in the Middle East: Why a Structurally Similar Position to the Gulf Still Leaves the Kurds Bearing Additional Costs
The Kurdish question remains a persistent Middle Eastern strategic dilemma. Given their demographic weight and geographic position, it is difficult to treat the issue as peripheral. Yet without a single state framework, it is often fragmented in international discourse. April 18, 2026 04 Limitations of the 10-Day Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire
The 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17, 2026, should be understood not as the beginning of a full stabilization phase, but as a limited de-escalatory interval shaped by accumulated war fatigue and external pressure for restraint. April 17, 2026 03 The Limits of US-Israel Alignment After the Ceasefire: The Lebanon Front and Strategic Cost Asymmetry
From Israel's perspective, the current Lebanon front extends beyond a simple campaign to eliminate Hezbollah. Although Hezbollah is the formal target of engagement, the actual pattern of strikes is unfolding in a direction that disrupts Lebanon's spatial order as a whole and erodes its internal cohesion. April 10, 2026 02 Structural Vulnerability of the Three South Caucasus States: After the End of the Russia-Ukraine War
The end of the Russia-Ukraine war can serve as the trigger that exposes the structural vulnerability embedded in the war-driven inflow economies of the three South Caucasus states. Their wartime expansion was not generated by endogenous growth. April 5, 2026 01 Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and the Iran War: The Structural Interlock of the Russia-Ukraine Negotiation Track
From mid-February 2026 onward, the Russia-Ukraine war ceased to function merely as an extended war of attrition and entered a compressed negotiation phase. The February 18 Geneva meeting and the scheduled early-March trilateral follow-up in Abu Dhabi established a concrete bargaining timetable, converting the diplomatic track from exploratory contact... March 29, 2026