Regional Briefs
Eurasian · Global South
09 The Structure of Israel’s Isolation Created by the US-Iran War-Ending MoU
After the conclusion of the U.S.-Iran war-ending MoU, the basic structure of the Middle East is expected to shift from escalation management to a war-termination management phase. This change goes beyond the end of the bilateral armed conflict between the United States and Iran, and is forming new structural pressure across the broader surrounding fronts... June 20, 2026 08 The Combination of Global South Industrialization and Chinese Capital
This issue concerns the fundamental limits of the EU's regulatory framework toward China when Chinese capital becomes integrated into the substantive structure of industrialization in third countries, namely the Global South. June 2, 2026 07 The EU-Ukraine Loan and the Risk of Premature Reparations Accounting
While the 2026–2027 EU loan agreement of up to 90 billion euros ratified by the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada focuses on fiscal stabilization and strengthening defense capabilities, the accounting structuring that links the repayment source to "Russia's post-war reparations" carries a potential risk of leading to severe geopolitical and financial headwinds in... May 28, 2026 06 The Hormuz Shock and Turkish Lira Risk
Turkey is currently facing a compound crisis of a high-inflation trend and a continuous decline in the value of the lira, and under this structural vulnerability, if a supply shock originating from the Strait of Hormuz is inflicted, its spillover effect on consumer prices is projected to exceed the level of simple arithmetic addition. May 26, 2026 05 Project Freedom and Maritime Control
The United States utilizes Project Freedom to facilitate merchant vessel protection, navigational safety, and transit support in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran strongly opposes the access of the U.S. Navy and the activation of external maritime coordination networks. May 4, 2026 04 Mali's Mineral Sovereignty Trap and Dependence on China and Russia
Security pressure across Mali's northern strongholds and the capital region has intensified, raising the junta's cost of maintaining state control. The military government has placed mineral control at the center of its sovereignty agenda, but worsening security conditions are pushing Mali into deeper dependence on Russian military backing and Chinese... April 29, 2026 03 Route Topology and Netback Asymmetry in the UAE's OPEC Exit
The UAE's exit from OPEC represents a structural fragmentation inside the Gulf oil order, where collective price defense and the individual monetization of production capacity have come into direct tension. The war premium generated by the Iran war combines with the physical constraints of the Strait of Hormuz, sharply raising friction costs such as... April 29, 2026 02 The EU's 20th Russia Sanctions Package and Its Constraints
The EU approved its 20th sanctions package against Russia alongside a 90 billion euro loan package in support of Ukraine. This package ranks among the more stringent recent sanctions rounds, simultaneously targeting Russia's shadow fleet, financial transactions, crypto asset channels, defense industry supply chains, and third-country circumvention networks. April 24, 2026 01 Limitations of the 10-Day Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire
The 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17, 2026, should be understood not as the beginning of a full stabilization phase, but as a limited de-escalatory interval shaped by accumulated war fatigue and external pressure for restraint. April 17, 2026